Mercosur, Brazil and Argentina

Y aqui aparecio el Brasil. El viaje sorpresivo, por lo menos para los argentinos, de Cardozo a Peru cambio el panorama.

Tradicionalmente, por lo menos desde el principio de siglo y a raiz de la guerra chileno-peruana, el Peru ha tenido una especial relacion con la Argentina. Sin ir mas lejos, fue el Peru el pais latinoamericano que encabezo la solidaridad con Argentina durante la guerra de Malvinas. Para no hablar de cosas mas sordidas, como el partido de futbol que en el mundial de 1978 le ganamos por, creo, 8 a 0, que era justamente lo que necesitabamos para entrar en la final. Peru es, desde esta perspectiva, un hermano predilecto. Bien. Menem le vendio armas a Ecuador, durante la desgraciada y breve guerra con el Peru. Y ademas lo hizo siendo miembro de la Comision de Rio de Janeiro encargada de velar por la paz entre los dos paises. Es decir, rompio por razones de puro enriquecimiento personal, una relacion de amistad y solidaridad probada en ocasiones tan dificiles como las de 1982.

Brasil, que es el unico pais del continente Sur, que tiene una declarada voluntad de encabezar un proceso de unificacion continental, vio la posibilidad que se abria y su presidente viajo a Peru a convencer a Fujimori en la necesidad de rechazar cualquier intento norteamericano. Para Brasil no es poco lo que esta en juego. La presencia de tropas yanquis en el corazon de America Latina significa para Brasil una amenaza sobre su centro amazonico. Los EE.UU. desde hace tiempo aspiran a controlar ese pulmon del mundo. Esto afectaria no solo a Brasil sino al propio Peru que comparte con aquel fronteras en la region.

La burguesia brasile F1a demuestra, por ahora, una voluntad de afirmacion frente a la hegemonia yanqui. El Mercosur, como ha dicho el amigo Magellan, esta en verdadero peligro. No por el Brasil, sino por la aleve traicion de Menem y las estrechas miras de la burguesia argentina. Me consta, por conversaciones con diplomaticos y especialistas, que Brasil le propuso a Argentina la constitucion de un Mercosur politico militar, que ejerciera su soberania sobre el Atlantico Sur, que desarrollase el arma nuclear y que estableciese planes estrategicos comunes. El sometimiento de Menem a la politica norteamericana (las relaciones carnales con EE.UU., como dijo nuestro ministro de RR.EE.) dejo a Brasil solo. Por lo visto estan disupuesto a seguir con Argentina o sin Argentina.

En otro momento continuo con estas reflexiones.

Julio F. Balaibar


Perfect, Julio. But in fact the MERCOSUR is not an unanimity among the Brazilian bourgeoisie. Just before the trip to Peru, Cardoso had decided to concede a huge subsidy -in the form both of fiscal renunciations and cheap credits - for the setting of a FORD motorcar plant in the Northeastern state of Bahia, in order to placate the arch-grey eminence of the regime, namely the Senator from Bahia Antonio Carlos Magalhaes. The degree of public funds directed towards this doubtful enterprise (there are at least 10 motorcar plants presently benefiting from such subsidies, and there will be no market enough to accommodate all of them) is a scandal, and it was perhaps of that that the Workers' Part governor of Rio Grande do Sul decided not to give Ford the subsidies in the level previously accorded by the former governor from the party of Cardoso - a decision which made Ford decide to move the plant to Bahia. By deciding to give subsidies to this plant, Cardoso has strained relations with the Argentinean industry, which hoped to sell spare parts to the new Ford plant, something made impossible when the said plant moved northwards.

Therefore, Cardoso's visit to Peru must be viewed, partly, as a quest of alternative markets in Latin America, just in case the present strains in Mercosur aggravate. Of course, Cardoso cannot agree about supporting any kind of American intervention in Colombia, something that would hardly please extreme right-wingers in the Brazilian Armed Forces, which view with suspicion American ecological concerns over the Amazonian basin.

It must be noted, also, that the main cause of concern so far in the eyes of Braz. right-wing diehards is exactly the setting-up, during the Collor government of a huge, W. European-country-sized, reservation for the Yanomami indians, something that the said right-wingers regard as the 1st. step towards the proclaiming of the existence op a Yanomami nation stretching across the border with Venezuela, that would proclaim its independence from both Brazil and Venezuela under US protection. If ever such an scheme begins to happens outside the realm of right-wingers conspiracy theories (the Yanomami so far have no political organization whatsoever) I wonder what kind of agonizing choices that will pose for the International Left...

Nevertheless, there are no political conditions whatsoever for any kind of Brazilian interference on the US side in Colombia, given the disruptive effects that would have on the already hugely unpopular Cardoso government. But of course American interference there will be- I believe, most of it covert. BTW, it's interesting to note that, nowadays, warfare as it was conceived in the beginning of the century - legitimate agents of the state issuing orders and sending from hundreds to millions of their own people to their deaths - is being increasingly superseded. either by high-tech aerial bombing, or by covert operations achieved by paramilitaries, soldiers of fortune, etc. The fact that the 2nd. alternative is the one available to most countries today put the issue that warfare is increasingly returning to its pre-French Revolution character- a dirty affair made by mercenaries living mainly from looting.

Carlos Rebello